How Likely Is A Second Scottish Independence Referendum?

The discussion and interest have waned somewhat and Scotland’s independence referendum is now running a distant third in priorities when it comes to a constitutional crisis. Brexit is the economic situation that has everyone on edge, so it all depends on what positive or negative influence it may have on the economy of Scotland. But there are also extreme cases, for example, the collapse of Northern Ireland’s power-shaping government is a cause of concerns with Brexit, which may rally continued interest in another Scottish independence referendum.


As the polls show today, the support for Ms Sturgeon is just 43% of the likely voters. Obviously, Sturgeon will want to be assured of winning before making the call for a referendum. Brexit had an impact, but the structure of people and their choices haven’t changed much. We won’t know for sure until Article 50 is triggered, but in the meantime, the SNP and the Tory/Lib Dem coalition had an agreement – they had put up a document named The Edinburgh Agreement and it transfers responsibility to vote to the Scottish government. A lot of things have happened, but this was done because referendum can keep Scotland out of EU and the even UK. If you thought a week is a long time in politics, imagine what could happen in 5 years.


Cameron and Salmond have left their positions because of this agreement. Now, everything is in open for May and Sturgeon and these two are the names that will determine Scotland’s future in UK and EU. There are supporters of the referendum, and there are those that think the referendum shouldn’t happen even in a worst-case scenario. For example, the Dumfriesshire MP said that it shouldn’t happen at all because that isn’t something Scotland needs. This is a huge case and it may end in the UK’s Supreme Court with the option of a government blow just like Brexit did.


Some say that Sturgeon hasn’t got the situation in her hands and that this is a big gamble because this could lead to the total crash of Scotland. This is exactly one of the reasons she was turned into a star of the 2015 General Elections. What is almost certain is that a new referendum may not have the same consequences, but it will almost surely have the same results.


There are two sides to each story, and many lessons to learn. One of them is that even though for court appearances, Mas is greeted by a lot of her supporters and they are confident of victory, the other side is equally confident also. This may be a lesson for Scotland. They’ll need to have a strong mental fortitude to endure all the possible economic and constitutional fall-out of a second Scottish independence referendum. Also, Theresa May could probably be accused of being similarly blinded to what lies ahead pre-Brexit and post-Brexit, as this situation certainly has powder keg potential.


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Alexander Bowring is a London based writer and a Southampton Solent University Screenwriting graduate. He has worked alongside TV personality and Telegraph feature writer Alison Cork, whilst also having produced content for ITV, This Morning, Canvas8, Who’s Jack, Alison at Home, and Bonallack & Bishop Solicitors. Alexander also has a keen interest in investments.


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